What happens to the future of our future pilots?
This post was first published in April of 2020.
There are a few certainties that we can all agree on concerning the aviation industry and the
coronaviris (COVID-19) crisis.
A: There will be a large number of pilots retiring over the next two years.
B: There will be a solution to the health crisis; either a cure or at least a vaccine.
C: There will be a time when the economy and world opens up again.
D: People will want and need to fly for personal, business and health reasons.
E: Though time right now is very unpredictable, with time comes invention, and the ingenuity to succeed and grow. New ways of doing old things will come out as a result - and the aviation industry is no different.
F: If flying is your life, then flight school needs to be the educational and social glue that keeps you motivated and inspired to do that for the rest of your life. You will not fly airplanes without training, period. If you start your training as soon as the stay-at-home order is lifted, it will be about 2 years before you are finished, which will coincide with the economic rebound.
There was a pilot shortage predicted before te COVID-19 crisis, and that shortage is said to be even bigger when the economy reopens and the airlines scramble to fill the available pilot slots as the ramping up process occurs. A financial recovery will eventuate with future pilot retirement. Do a Google search for "Will Your Airline Pilot Career Survive COVID-19?" and you can read everything I read. It's all there, the bad and, ultimately, the hopeful.
There is no denying that there is an air-travel crisis and that jobs and airline businesses are at stake. But there is a bigger picture, and that is the tenacity and determination of the human element of the aviation industry, which has historically recovered and overcome all major upheavals.
International Air Transport Association: Relief and Confidence-Building
60% anticipate a return to travel within one to two months of containment of the COVID-19 pandemic but 40% indicate that they could wait six months or more.
Domestic market behavior is a critical indicator as the post-pandemic recovery is expected to be led by domestic travel, followed by regional and then intercontinental as governments progressively remove restrictions.
"People still want to travel. But they are telling us that they want clarity on the economic situation and will likely wait for at least a few months after any ‘all clear’ before returning to the skies. As countries lift restrictions, confidence boosting measures will be critical to re-start travel and stimulate economies,” said Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s Director General and CEO.
“The world will rely on airlines and air connectivity to restore the global economy. A successful restart of the industry will be crucial."